Manuscript submitted

I recently submitted a new manuscript on vital rates and life histories in marble trout. Dense paper, lots of models, lots of results. Currently under review. Here below are the Title and Abstract.


Within and among-population variation in vital rates and population dynamics in a variable environment --- Vincenzi, Mangel, Jesensek, Garza, Crivelli.


Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. In order to understand how within- and among-population variation emerge, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, tag-recapture data for the estimation and characterization of individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart population-, shared-, and individual contribution to the observed variation.

We used long-term tag-recapture data and novel statistical and modeling techniques to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus, a narrow endemic freshwater salmonid. Only ten populations of pure marble trout still persist in Western Slovenian headwaters. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years.

In particular, we estimated and determined causes of variation and trade-offs within- and among populations in growth, survival, and recruitment in response to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early conditions, and extreme events.

In all ten populations, we found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that individual growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on survival and recruitment. Population density was variable over time in all populations, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. A fast- to slow-continuum of life histories in marble trout populations seemed to emerge, with slow growth associated with higher survival at the population level, possibly determined by food conditions and age at maturity.

Our work provides unprecedented insight into the causes of variation in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics in an endemic species that is teetering on the edge of extinction.